What will prove more important: the clean sheet or an away goal?
It has become a cliché with no real verification of its truth: in Europe, with those vital (and sometimes pesky) away goals, a 2-1 defeat away from home is just as good as a goalless draw.
The theory doesn’t work, however. With an away goal in the bag, a 1-0 victory at home is all that’s needed. But with a first leg 0-0, a 1-0 win in the second leg is also enough – but so, too, would be another goalless draw, with the potential of a penalty shoot-out.
Make no mistake, the Blues hold the advantage after Romelu Lukaku’s late winner from the spot last week.
But 2-1 is a tricky scoreline. Roberto Martinez will know an early goal could serve the dual purpose of quietening the home support and strengthening his side’s grip on the tie. A goal means Kiev need two.
In the pursuit of that goal, however, gaps could emerge, with the Ukrainian side possessing plenty of players capable of punishing that. And if Dynamo Kiev score, the Blues have to score themselves – which automatically hands the initiative to the home side.
It’s a tricky conundrum for a manager who hasn’t faced such a scenario before and proves, though not as troublesome as a goalless draw, a 2-1 lead isn’t the most comfortable of positions to be in.
What can the Blues learn from Olimpik Donetsk and Karpaty Lviv?
Few teams leave NSC Olimpiyskiy, home of Dynamo Kiev, with anything but a defeat.
FC Olimpik Donetsk, promoted as champions from Ukraine’s second-tier, have done it. Karpaty Lviv, bottom of the Ukrainian Premier League, have managed it too.
They are the only two this season.
In August, the newly-promoted Olimpik Donetsk set up in a 4-5-1 formation. Kiev had the ball but managed just 10 shots at goal. The game ended goalless.
In November, Karpaty did the same with a similar, defensive formation. Dynamo managed nine shots on goal and 59% of the possession, but couldn’t score – their frustration highlighted by a late sending off for Sergey Sidorchuk.
This season, the league leaders have beaten Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 and Steaua Bucharest 3-1 – the two sides of note to have faced off with Sergei Rebrov’s men. But they are not infallible, as the results against Olimpik and Karpaty prove.
Everton won’t line up in such a defensive manner, but they will go into the game knowing teams far weaker than them have managed to do what Everton need in order to progress into the last eight.
How much bigger is this than QPR on Sunday?
The win over Newcastle was vital at its most basic function, with three points moving the Blues away from the relegation zone and giving them just their second league win in 2015.
But it also helps Everton’s bid to move into the quarter-finals of the Europa League.
With that win over the Magpies, pressure was relieved. Had the Toon taken a point or more from Goodison Park, the away game against Queens Park Rangers would have been an unwelcome six-pointer, a real pivotal moment in their season.
It is still important, of course, but it allows the Blues to give everything into their trip to Kiev.
Martinez has a squad big enough to cope with the demands of both – but it makes team selection a little easier knowing the game at QPR isn’t as must-win as it could have been.
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